Revising price history: consumer price index for Norway 1492–2018

ABSTRACT

The paper presents a new combined annual cost of living and consumer price index for Norway covering 1492–2018, indicating that Norwegian price history has to be revised. The new historical price index is constructed on a significantly richer data material, which also makes it cover a longer period of price history than the existing one. This is made possible by the compilation of quantitative data from numerous sources, mostly originating from the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, with grain prices stretching back to 1492. The new combined cost of living and consumer price index is constructed by a Laspeyres approach with shifting baskets for commodities and expenditure groups.

The index makes it possible to follow annual inflation and deflation in Norway for a period of 526 years. When comparing to existing indices, the new series reveals that revisions are needed in Norwegian price history. These make the historical price development more in line with those of the neighbouring countries and more in line with the pattern of wholesale prices.     

Employment quality index for the South African labour market

ABSTRACT

While the South African government specifically set targets on job creation in its numerous economic strategies since the economic transition, various local studies examined the levels and trends in labour force, employment and unemployment to evaluate if these targets were met. However, the quality of employment has not been thoroughly examined. This is the first local study that fills the existing research gap by deriving a composite, multidimensional employment quality index by taking 18 indicators from seven dimensions into consideration: wage, work hours and flexibility, employment security, income security, social benefits, skills and participation. Using the 2010–16 Quarterly Labour Force Survey data, the empirical findings indicated that highly educated, white male workers aged at least 35 years, who lived in urban areas of the Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, and were involved in high skilled occupations in the formal, public sector enjoyed significantly better employment quality.     

禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

生态文明建设背景财政扶持、林权改革对林业生产效率的影响

基于2000—2016年中国省际面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对中国林业生产效率的区域差异和时序变化进行研究,运用面板Tobit模型检验财政扶持对林业生产效率的影响并验证林权改革对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现:在生态文明建设背景下,林业生产效率存在显著的区域差异;技术进步对于全要素生产率的提升起到重要推进作用;财政扶持与林权改革均对林业生产效率产生了正向影响,但林权改革并没有对财政扶持与林业生产效率的关系产生积极调节作用。因此,各省份应当通过加大政府扶持力度、优化投资方式、深化集体林权制度改革等措施促进林业生产效率提升。     

非农就业对种植决策的影响*——基于土地地势的研究视角

［目的］农村劳动力非农转移影响农户农业生产方式变迁，土地质量差异造成的生产差异会随着农村劳动力非农转移造成的人力投入减少而更加显现。针对农户的市场经济行为，文章从理论及实证角度探讨农户农业劳动投入减少时农户生产决策的变化，并根据实证结果进一步探讨我国农业种植结构的变化趋势，为相关政策的制定提供决策参考。［方法］该文运用多元回归模型，从土地资源异质性的视角分析了劳动力非农就业后在不同地势耕地的农业生产决策变化。［结果］劳动力非农就业明显影响了农户种植决策，在质量较高的平地上，农户的生产决策是种植机械化生产使用高的粮食作物来减少劳动力投入下降，在质量较差的山坡地上，农户的生产决策是降低对山坡地的使用强度来解决劳动力投入不足问题，具体表现方式是降低粮食种植面积以及抛荒方式来分配家庭农业劳动投入。［结论］不同地势耕地利用强度将会出现不同变化，平原以及交通便利地区，可以通过机械来替代人力投入，交通较为不发达的山区丘陵地区，需要通过加大农业基础设施建设等来解决山区丘陵地区的抛荒问题。政策支持方面，鼓励中低产田提高产品产量与提升降本技术，保障与维护国家粮食安全。     

山东省与江苏省对外直接投资差异及影响因素研究

山东、江苏作为中国的经济大省,其对外直接投资已成为推动经济发展的重要因素。基于2008—2017年山东省17地市、江苏省13地市对外直接投资面板数据,利用泰尔指数对两省对外直接投资存在的总体区域间差异进行衡量,并针对对外直接投资差异的相关影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:工业发展水平、人力资源成本、研发水平和金融发展规模对山东省对外直接投资影响显著,经济发展水平、出口贸易和外商直接投资对山东省对外直接投资影响不显著;人力资源成本、出口贸易对江苏省对外直接投资影响显著,研发水平、工业发展水平、经济发展水平、外商直接投资以及金融发展规模影响不显著,分析后提出相关建议。     

昌九工业走廊工业化指数空间分布研究

利用统计软件，通过主成分分析获得昌九工业走廊26个县域的工业化指数，作为衡量地区工业化水平的标准。并通过空间分析软件研究2016年各县域工业化指数的空间关联性。研究结果表示，各地区的工业化水平在空间单元呈现正相关的特性，同时展示出了地理空间的集聚效应。结合工业化指数及其空间特征，研究地区经济发展的机理，给予产业调整建议：昌九工业走廊应因地制宜地进行产业结构调整，工业化程度较低且第一产业比重大的地区应适当发展特色加工业和特色旅游业，而工业化水平领先的地区应进行工业改造与技术升级，发展低能耗少污染高产值的新型产业。     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of soybean crop in the Matopiba region,Brazil (1990–2015)

Brazil is a world leader in the production and export of grains, particularly soybeans. The newest agricultural frontier in Brazil is the Matopiba region, which is a continuous zone formed by the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia, located mostly within the Cerrado biome. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of soybean production and yield in the Matopiba region. We analyzed municipality-based planted areas and production data obtained by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics during 1990–2015. Yield was estimated from the production and planted area, and the data were analyzed using global and local Moran indices. The results showed that soybean production in the Matopiba region does not occur randomly. Positive and significant autocorrelation was found at the beginning of the time series among those municipalities located in the west of Bahia. This region influenced the soybean expansion from south to north. Currently, high-production areas are concentrated in two autocorrelated blocks: one in western Bahia and the other in the central Matopiba region. Analysis of spatial autocorrelation involving yield showed a decreasing trend at the end of the time series. The presence of municipalities with high yield surrounded by others with low yield, and vice-versa, were observed. The findings of this study could assist local and regional agricultural planning in the Matopiba region, and support related analyses in other fields of agriculture, the environment, and logistics.     

旅游目的地地格的理论源流、本质与测度指标

全球化背景下,在旅游目的地开发与营销过程中忽视了地方的本质特征,旅游目的地竞争走向“无地方性”与“无个性”的地方趋同陷阱。地格理论融合地理学的地方性理论、营销学的品牌个性理论、旅游学的推拉理论以及管理学的资源基础论,提出旅游目的地开发与营销成功的关键是以地格为依托,即关注目的地长期积累形成的生活方式的本质特征,避免地方趋同。本文指出具有代表力、吸引力与竞争力的旅游地格是旅游目的地的品牌基因,还从旅游目的地政府、游客和居民视角出发,运用定性与定量相结合的方法,创建了由自然环境、人文环境与群体性格组成的地格因子体系。     

TrAffic LIght system for systemic Stress: TALIS3

For the purposes of financial stability, identifying financial institutions that, when in distress, could have a significant adverse impact on financial markets is important. A TrAffic LIght System for Systemic Stress (TALIS-cube) is proposed that provides a comprehensive color-based classification for grouping companies according to both the stress reaction level of the system when the company is in distress and the company’s stress level. TALIS³ can integrate multiple signals from the interaction between different risk metrics. Starting from specific risk indicators, companies are classified by combining two loss functions—one for the system and one for each company—evaluated over time and as a cross section. An aggregated index is also obtained from the color-based classification of companies. TALIS³ can be used to enhance the performance and robustness of existing systemic risk measures. An empirical analysis of the U.S. market is also provided.